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What about autonomous cars that can fly? Or planes?

When we talk about the future of transportation these days, self-driving vehicles is the first thing that comes to mind, and aerospace is no different.  When the discussion starts, relative to cars, the first question is, like we’ve discussed before, the machine’s reaction to an emergency situation. The same thing happens in aerospace again.

The discussion might seem very similar, and it is, however small nuances might give some food for thought that will feed into the discussion regarding cars. There is a common idea that pilots have a lot of experience and are seen as entirely reliable and that is what keeps us safe up there, but the truth is more complex than that. Pilots are indeed very experienced and can save our lives, like Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger who landed US Airways Flight 1549, an Airbus A320-214, on the Hudson River after a bird-strike as it took off from New York’s LaGuardia Airport in January 2009. On the other hand we have Germanwings Flight 4U 9525, that has crashed in the Alps in March 2015 with the human factor as a main reason.

Across innumerous articles there is a feeling that people do not trust self-driving planes but the truth is, that some of the accidents are human error.  We all know that by now, most of aircraft controls are automatic40 and it is possible to do take-off and landing with no pilot interaction, however, we return to the first question: “what about in case of emergency?”. The discussion might never end, but from our perspective pilots do more than just “driving” a plane (pre-flight checks for example) so we think that the discussion with planes will take longer than cars.

We would like to go through the history of “amount of people on the cockpit”, maybe another time, but for now bear in mind that Boeing is thinking about reducing to one single pilot41 and Airbus is actually working in flying cars so like the cars42,43, this is happening.

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Mobility for everyone.

Nowadays,  who doesn’t have a car at the doorstep? Or, if this is not your case, the next question would be: nowadays, who doesn’t have two cars at the doorstep? In Portugal, 2014 statistics, say the around 90% of people travel by car21.

Our parents’ generation had the opportunity of acquiring a vehicle and our generations (80’s) grew up with this comfort. Even if the consequences of excessive use well known, who is going to stop using a car?

A few more minutes collecting statistics allow us to know that the prediction for the next few years show that the number of 65 years old will grow22. Older people, due to their experience, are the ones that show a bigger driving knowledge, being able to predict dangerous sceneries easily. However, at the same time, their age take this advantage from them, increasing the physical and mental limitations leading to an increased risk of accidents on the road17. Just like older people, people under the influence of alcohol and tiredness can see their ability to drive diminished, leading to an increase of the likelihood of an accident. Human error is the cause of 90% of all road accidents23, without taking in to account minor accidents that are not reported to the authorities.

The AV allows all these people to circulate in the interior without any interaction needed. This way, weakened and disable people are able to move independently, regardless of physical or mental problems that would prevent them to drive a vehicle.

But not everything is perfect. These advantages are also related to some problems when we drive our attention to the operational part. The AV, regardless of its evolution does not replace an human being. Weakened and disable people need help to get in and out of the vehicles. The adaptation of these vehicles to these problems should be investigated and developed to allow the integration of the biggest number of people.

But the arrival of autonomy will allow the mobility of a different group of people, that are not allow to drive today, like youngsters and children, due to their age and immaturity. Can we say that the extra travelling in the end of the day to drive the kids to practice or swimming are over? One more time operational issues have to be carefully thought like allowing kids to travel without supervision or safety.

The AV will have the goal of becoming a transport for everyone, however, the answers to some of the issues raised will be decisive on the integration of different groups of population.

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Less road accidents, please.

In Portugal, road accidents are less an less each year. Nevertheless, data from 2015, shows that the number of road accidents and victims continues to be high: 32000 accidents, 41000 serious injuries and 473 deaths12. The social impact of these numbers is quite high. But there is an economic impact that can’t be seen at first sight. Based on a study about road safety13, considering the number of death and injured during 2015, and based on simple math one can say that the impact on Portuguese economy is more than 750 000 000 euros each year.

With the introduction of AV and a total replacement of vehicle fleet, we believe that the fatality rate (by Km traveled per person) might get closer to the aviation and trains one, at around 1 % from the present value14. The AV will be prepared to face several scenarios, what will help to improve road safety. However it’s not possible to predict all kinds of different situations. The AV system would be ready to give a response to several challenges in a safe way15. An AV has to be capable of dealing with accidents and road events and behave in a safe way in a different context: driving in all geographic locations, all types of road, traffic conditions or weather conditions5. Can we say the same of a human?

But this challenge is not only dependent of technology but also of the transition period. On an optimistic approach we assume the AV can reduce the rate of accidents and injured in 50 %, in  short/medium term16 (market penetration rate of 10 %). This value reflects aspects like the reduction of road code rules violation: for example, cross a red light,something that the AV s not authorised to do.

Other authors are more cautious. Considering that traditional vehicles and AV will share the road, accident rate can even get worse, at least for traditional vehicles17 that are not used to the new way of driving AV. And increase safety for some endangering others is not actually a benefit, even if in the end the balance is positive18. In a transitional phase, issues with pedestrian’s safety will also be raised. People’s behaviours are shaped to their expectations. If people consider that the AV will stop every time that that is confronted with a dangerous situation, then the pedestrians might became less cautious and less responsible when close to AV19 and drivers might try riskier manoeuvres because they feel safer in an autonomous mobility environment20.