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Mobility for everyone.

Nowadays,  who doesn’t have a car at the doorstep? Or, if this is not your case, the next question would be: nowadays, who doesn’t have two cars at the doorstep? In Portugal, 2014 statistics, say the around 90% of people travel by car21.

Our parents’ generation had the opportunity of acquiring a vehicle and our generations (80’s) grew up with this comfort. Even if the consequences of excessive use well known, who is going to stop using a car?

A few more minutes collecting statistics allow us to know that the prediction for the next few years show that the number of 65 years old will grow22. Older people, due to their experience, are the ones that show a bigger driving knowledge, being able to predict dangerous sceneries easily. However, at the same time, their age take this advantage from them, increasing the physical and mental limitations leading to an increased risk of accidents on the road17. Just like older people, people under the influence of alcohol and tiredness can see their ability to drive diminished, leading to an increase of the likelihood of an accident. Human error is the cause of 90% of all road accidents23, without taking in to account minor accidents that are not reported to the authorities.

The AV allows all these people to circulate in the interior without any interaction needed. This way, weakened and disable people are able to move independently, regardless of physical or mental problems that would prevent them to drive a vehicle.

But not everything is perfect. These advantages are also related to some problems when we drive our attention to the operational part. The AV, regardless of its evolution does not replace an human being. Weakened and disable people need help to get in and out of the vehicles. The adaptation of these vehicles to these problems should be investigated and developed to allow the integration of the biggest number of people.

But the arrival of autonomy will allow the mobility of a different group of people, that are not allow to drive today, like youngsters and children, due to their age and immaturity. Can we say that the extra travelling in the end of the day to drive the kids to practice or swimming are over? One more time operational issues have to be carefully thought like allowing kids to travel without supervision or safety.

The AV will have the goal of becoming a transport for everyone, however, the answers to some of the issues raised will be decisive on the integration of different groups of population.

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Less road accidents, please.

In Portugal, road accidents are less an less each year. Nevertheless, data from 2015, shows that the number of road accidents and victims continues to be high: 32000 accidents, 41000 serious injuries and 473 deaths12. The social impact of these numbers is quite high. But there is an economic impact that can’t be seen at first sight. Based on a study about road safety13, considering the number of death and injured during 2015, and based on simple math one can say that the impact on Portuguese economy is more than 750 000 000 euros each year.

With the introduction of AV and a total replacement of vehicle fleet, we believe that the fatality rate (by Km traveled per person) might get closer to the aviation and trains one, at around 1 % from the present value14. The AV will be prepared to face several scenarios, what will help to improve road safety. However it’s not possible to predict all kinds of different situations. The AV system would be ready to give a response to several challenges in a safe way15. An AV has to be capable of dealing with accidents and road events and behave in a safe way in a different context: driving in all geographic locations, all types of road, traffic conditions or weather conditions5. Can we say the same of a human?

But this challenge is not only dependent of technology but also of the transition period. On an optimistic approach we assume the AV can reduce the rate of accidents and injured in 50 %, in  short/medium term16 (market penetration rate of 10 %). This value reflects aspects like the reduction of road code rules violation: for example, cross a red light,something that the AV s not authorised to do.

Other authors are more cautious. Considering that traditional vehicles and AV will share the road, accident rate can even get worse, at least for traditional vehicles17 that are not used to the new way of driving AV. And increase safety for some endangering others is not actually a benefit, even if in the end the balance is positive18. In a transitional phase, issues with pedestrian’s safety will also be raised. People’s behaviours are shaped to their expectations. If people consider that the AV will stop every time that that is confronted with a dangerous situation, then the pedestrians might became less cautious and less responsible when close to AV19 and drivers might try riskier manoeuvres because they feel safer in an autonomous mobility environment20.

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People will turn green

Questions related to reliability, cyber-safety, ethics or accountability in case of an accident, will have to be answered in a short amount of time7. Nevertheless, there are more operational questions that will rise, like safety and comfort in case the driver gets the control of the vehicle back, in a level 3 SAE8 or motion sickness on a level 5 SAE9 vehicle. Let’s focus on this last issue.

When I was a child, on the curved mountain roads, it was certain that after 15 minutes on the back seat of the car my lunch would make its way out. Growing up and driving on the same curved roads I’ve never suffered of motion sickness again. I don’t see myself on that back seat ever again, however that will happen with an AV.

Once the driver is no longer necessary it becomes just a passenger and easily susceptible to motion sickness10. Why? Because a driver can predict the movement of the car, but a passenger can’t.

And who has never, as a child, tried to read a book on the back seat? Or more recently read an article on the smartphone?

The automation of vehicles will allow the drivers to perform tasks that are not road related. With the use of AV nothing will be required from a driver and one can perform several different activities. With the driver becoming a passenger that are able to look at a book or smartphone it will be easier to lose perception of movement felt by the body and a static image seen by the eyes. This conflict will potentiate motion sickness7,11.

These vehicles can’t be seen as leaving rooms, offices or lounge areas with wheals7. In the future, some product changes will be required in order to avoid these issues and make the user aware. Several tests, either in a simulator or with real vehicles, are being developed to identify an acceptable solution for this problem.

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The dark side

An autonomous vehicle (AV) is not something that will be easily introduced, there will be several obstacles until we can use such an advanced technology. We ´re not just talking about hardware or software issues, but to general issues like the passenger´s confidential data, the vehicle data safety, the insurance or the ethical issues relative to life or death decisions.

Imagine yourself inside an AV facing an hazardous situation caused by a package falling from a lorry in front of you. The vehicle will have to avoid the package and choose one of the following options:

a) kill a person on a zebra crossing on the left; or
b) kill a dog on the right.

What option would you chose? There´s no place for “none of the above”. Even if the answer could be easy in this case, from our point of view, we can add some complexity. Imagine that you would have to choose between:

a) kill a cyclist without a casket that is not respecting safety rules; or
b) seriously injure a cyclist with a casket that puts safety first.

Things get tricky don’t they? More comparisons can be done. On the MIT website Moral Machine6, you can find a kind of a game where, facing a hazardous situation, you will have to choose one of the options that will challenge your ethics, moral and common sense. You will have to choose between killing an old lady or the young and sporty guy; the thief or your bank manager; or, the most difficult one, from our point of view, 3 people on the zebra crossing or the person that is inside the vehicle. This option leaves you less comfortable, doesn’t it? So would you buy a vehicle that can kill you?

When facing these questions the reader starts realising that the AV will make decisions for you as a passenger, and a question arises: would you trust that the AV will make the “right” decision in a life or death situation?

A quick search on the MIT Moral Machine website6, allow us to conclude that the enquired prioritise saving lives and protect Mankind compared to animals. It also shows that they tend to take in consideration one’s higher social value, youngsters and females as well as the fact of respecting the law and avoid the direct intervention of AV when facing the decision.

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What is the technology?

To accept a fully automated vehicle we need to understand the levels of automation, but when we try to do that we realise that automated vehicles are already a reality and a proven technology. The level 1 of automation is already available in any new family car sold anywhere in the world. In this level we can find the commonly used Cruise Control (CC) that allows us to press a button and program the motor to maintain a certain speed, or go in an automatic way to a set speed value. More examples regarding this level are: Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), the vehicle follows the front car and detect if it is accelerating or decelerating, or Park Assist (PA), where the steering is controlled by the automated system but the acceleration/deceleration is controlled by the human driver.

It is also a fact that advanced technology concerning the level 2 starts to be used in not only luxury cars. At this level we have the vehicles that are able to park without any human interaction, intelligent parking assist (IPA), and that with an automated system that controls acceleration/deceleration along with car´s movement in congestion areas, traffic jam assist feature (TJA)5. In sum, this level allows a human driver to get his hands off the wheel but still forces the driver to have his eyes on the road. See Tesla Autopilot4.

Level 3 will be the next level, with some technology already in an experimental phase, where the vehicle will perform in an autonomous way but with human supervision and interaction in specific occasions. These vehicles can carry out any decision like a human being would, but in some situations they will require intervention from the driver. Some companies are testing this technology as another stepping stone to reach the next level and this is the point where the interaction between human and machine starts to be discussed. Some accidents are caused by the fact that the human driver disrespected a specific rule, causing the accident, and maybe this will be the turning point of the whole discussion. Now is when we start questioning the actions of the machine, since it is not only assisting a human driver, but making decisions on its own.

At the same time that the technology evolves, so does the sociological discussion, and only this way we will achieve level 4 and 5, where no human interaction will be required. See Waymo2 and CityMobil23 (level 4). Until then, these first levels are real and understand them will allow us to reach to the next one. We hope this blog helps demystify the technology and contribute to the sociological discussion because this will happen, so as soon as we understand it, the better.

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Let´s start from the beginning

We´re starting to see on social media something about motor vehicles that are able to go from A to B with little or even without any human input. Different names and designations are given to these vehicles and they seem to be able to do different things; some are able to drive distances in constant speeds, others are able to stop if they spot an obstacle and a few are even able to drive with no human inside. To be able to discuss the pros and cons of any subject is important to properly explain what we are talking about.

We see some news about accidents involving autonomous or self-driven vehicles and very few about the investigation in that area or what exactly is the nature of these vehicles. The subject is new and a lot needs to be done to investigate the technology properly, but without general knowledge, this technology will be even harder to implement, because one always get suspicions about the unknown.

SAE International1 provides a standardisation of the terminology for on-road motor vehicle automated Driving Systems. This classification identifies six levels of driving automation from “no automation” to “full automation” and is consistent with current industry practice.

  • Level 0 – No automation – human driver takes control of all aspects of the dynamic driving task;
  • Level 1 – Driver assistance – a driver assistance system of either steering or acceleration/deceleration is used; the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task;
  • Level 2 – Partial automation – usage of one or more driver assistance systems of both: steering and acceleration/ deceleration; the human driver does everything else;
  • Level 3 – Conditional automation – an automated driving system drives by itself but the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene;
  • Level 4 – High automation – the driving mode is performed by an automated driving system, even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene;
  • Level 5 – Full automation – full-time vehicle´s performance is controlled by an automated driving system.

Click in the image to open the original SAE table.

SAE automation level