It seems risky to bet on when a technology is going to be in place when it depends exclusively on investigation. Analists are able to make a prevision based on different sources. Besides that, they use different strategies that help them organise thoughts and minimise uncertainty of the final answer. But when you work medium/long term it looks like the answer, even if result on deep reflection, gets confused with guessing like Nostradamus.
Comparison of strategies:
If we look at the development cycle for other technologies on the automotive world, we notice that there is a long period until the final product gets to all markets. The airbag, that is a key feature in any vehicle, took more than 25 years to be integrated in cars around the world; automatic gearbox and navigation systems had an even longer development time; it took more than 30 or 50 years respectively to win the title of mass production20.
However, on these last few years, we’ve seen an accelerated evolution on different technologies in transportation. The investigation of the avanced assistance system is developing different technological capacities that later will feed the autonomous vehicle (Level 5 SAE). Nevertheless some of these technological features are embedded in different models.
The integration of these technologies contributes for the separation of the brands and is an argument in sales marketing. Aren’t we racing for the last technological product helping spreading? For example, eco Driving, in just 3 years was able to consolidate its market share, meaning that between 2012-2015 it was already installed in 25% of new models in Europe26.
Diesel and petrol vehicles substitution by electric vehicles is also today’s news in automotive industry. If, on one hand, the diesel gate news and European policies goes towards more sustainable ways, on the other hand, the development of electric batteries is not a close deal for consumers.
Hybrid vehicles, after 15 years on the market still don’t have a substantial market share20. Would the AV be included in this, a wanted product that will be in eternal development to justify its value?
But what does the press say and the researchers on the field?